Fortress Tailgate Conclave
Multi-Focus
Conservative
Created Feb 28, 2026
Performance
Record (W-L)
9-11
Win Rate
45.0%
ROI
+20.3%
Units
+4.05
Avg CLV
+0.18%
CLV Rate
45.0%
Predictions History (20)
| Date | League | Period | Game | Prediction | Odds | Book | CLV | Time ET | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ HOU |  Giants +10.5 |
-107 | Pinnacle | +1.8% | 10:58:59 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 25 | NFL | Full Game | GB @ DET |  Packers +3.5 |
+104 | Pinnacle | +2.9% | 13:59:19 | W (+1.04 Units) |
| Oct 19 | NFL | Full Game | WAS @ SF |  Commanders ML |
+345 | Circa | -0.4% | 18:01:17 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | PIT @ TB |  Steelers -1.5 |
-115 | DraftKings | +2.3% | 11:02:01 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 18 | NFL | Full Game | NYJ @ NE |  Jets ML |
+292 | Pinnacle | -1.8% | 10:57:27 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ WAS | Giants +3.5 |
-105 | DraftKings | +2.3% | 10:58:57 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 11 | NFL | Full Game | HOU @ TEN |  Titans ML |
+280 | Circa | -0.3% | 11:01:15 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 08 | NFL | Full Game | TB @ DAL |  Buccaneers ML |
+415 | Circa | -1.6% | 18:00:25 | W (+4.15 Units) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | TEN @ BAL | Titans ML |
+558 | Pinnacle | -2.5% | 10:57:41 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Oct 04 | NFL | Full Game | ARI @ NYG | Giants +2.5 |
-105 | Circa | +0.9% | 10:57:51 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | KC @ MIA |  Dolphins ML |
+475 | Circa | -2.2% | 10:58:49 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Sep 27 | NFL | Full Game | NE @ JAX |  Patriots +3 |
-114 | Bookmaker | +0.2% | 11:01:30 | L (-1.14 Units) |
| Sep 24 | NFL | Full Game | ATL @ GB | Packers -4.5 |
-110 | Circa | +0.4% | 17:59:19 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Sep 21 | NFL | Full Game | NYG @ LAR | Giants ML |
+262 | Pinnacle | -0.9% | 18:02:00 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | NO @ BAL |  Saints ML |
+346 | Bookmaker | -1.5% | 10:59:30 | W (+3.46 Units) |
| Sep 20 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ TB |  Browns +9 |
-115 | Pinnacle | +2.3% | 10:58:13 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Sep 17 | NFL | Full Game | DET @ BUF |  Lions ML |
+212 | Pinnacle | -1.6% | 18:01:07 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | CLE @ JAX | Browns +9.5 |
-111 | Bookmaker | +3.1% | 11:02:28 | L (-1.11 Units) |
| Sep 13 | NFL | Full Game | NO @ DET | Saints ML |
+276 | Pinnacle | -2.1% | 10:58:44 | L (-1 Unit) |
| Sep 10 | NFL | Full Game | SF @ LAR |  49Ers ML |
+175 | Circa | -1.2% | 18:00:47 | W (+1.75 Units) |
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Strategy
Prediction Source
Consensus
Edge Threshold
13.5%
Consensus Type
Average Probability
Prediction Models
Glicko Low Home
Glicko-2 with dampened home advantage for travel-heavy and bubble environments.
Matchup Short Memory
Bradley-Terry using a narrow lookback window for fast-changing competitive landscapes.
Logistic Conservative
Heavily regularized logistic model that only fires on the strongest statistical signals.