Decisive Circle
Specialist
Moderate
Created Apr 16, 2026
Performance
Record (W-L-P)
14-5-2
Win Rate
73.7%
ROI
+45.0%
Units
+9.46
Avg CLV
+0.09%
CLV Rate
66.7%
Predictions History (21)
| Date | League | Period | Game | Prediction | Odds | Book | CLV | Time ET | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | NBA | 1st Half | LAL @ UTA |  Lakers -3 |
-112 | Pinnacle | +0.3% | 14:59:39 | P (+0 Units) |
| Oct 25 | NBA | 1st Half | DET @ PHI |  Pistons +0.5 |
-112 | FanDuel | +3.5% | 17:01:47 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Oct 24 | NBA | 1st Half | SAS @ DAL |  Mavericks +8 |
-110 | Bookmaker | -0.9% | 17:59:46 | P (+0 Units) |
| Oct 21 | NBA | 1st Half | MIL @ WAS |  Bucks ML |
+143 | Pinnacle | -0.1% | 16:57:52 | W (+1.43 Units) |
| Jun 05 | NBA | 1st Half | NYK @ SAS |  Knicks +4.5 |
-111 | Pinnacle | -0.2% | 17:57:38 | W (+1 Unit) |
| May 24 | NBA | 1st Half | OKC @ SAS |  Thunder +2 |
-105 | Pinnacle | +2.9% | 17:59:47 | L (-1.05 Units) |
| May 11 | NBA | 1st Half | OKC @ LAL | Lakers +6.5 |
-106 | Pinnacle | +2.7% | 19:58:01 | W (+1 Unit) |
| May 10 | NBA | 1st Half | NYK @ PHI | Knicks +0.5 |
-114 | FanDuel | +2.3% | 13:01:52 | W (+1 Unit) |
| May 09 | NBA | 1st Half | OKC @ LAL | Lakers +4.5 |
-118 | FanDuel | +0.2% | 18:01:38 | W (+1 Unit) |
| May 08 | NBA | 1st Half | NYK @ PHI | Knicks +1.5 |
-104 | Pinnacle | -3.4% | 16:58:01 | W (+1 Unit) |
| May 08 | NBA | 1st Half | NYK @ PHI | Knicks ML |
+150 | Circa | -1.4% | 18:01:28 | W (+1.50 Units) |
| May 01 | NBA | 1st Half | LAL @ HOU | Lakers +2.5 |
-112 | FanDuel | +0.9% | 18:57:16 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 30 | NBA | 1st Half | BOS @ PHI |  Celtics -3 |
-108 | Pinnacle | +1.5% | 17:58:07 | L (-1.08 Units) |
| Apr 30 | NBA | 1st Half | NYK @ ATL | Knicks -0.5 |
-115 | Bookmaker | +3.7% | 17:02:00 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 26 | NBA | 1st Half | LAL @ HOU | Lakers +2.5 |
-114 | Bookmaker | -1.8% | 19:01:35 | L (-1.14 Units) |
| Apr 26 | NBA | 1st Half | BOS @ PHI | Celtics -3.5 |
-118 | DraftKings | -2.0% | 17:01:59 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 26 | NBA | 1st Half | CLE @ TOR |  Cavaliers -1.5 |
-110 | Circa | +2.4% | 11:00:03 | L (-1.10 Units) |
| Apr 25 | NBA | 1st Half | OKC @ PHX | Thunder -4 |
-107 | Pinnacle | +0.7% | 12:57:31 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 24 | NBA | 1st Half | BOS @ PHI | Celtics -4 |
-114 | Circa | +1.8% | 17:01:22 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 23 | NBA | 1st Half | CLE @ TOR | Cavaliers +0.5 |
-121 | Bookmaker | +0.4% | 17:58:28 | W (+1 Unit) |
| Apr 23 | NBA | 1st Half | NYK @ ATL | Knicks +0 |
-110 | Circa | +0.8% | 17:00:21 | L (-1.10 Units) |
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Strategy
Prediction Source
Consensus
Edge Threshold
7.0%
Consensus Type
Unanimous
Prediction Models
Elo Sharp
Fine-tuned Elo optimized for closing-line accuracy and sharp-money alignment.
Glicko Sharp
Precision-tuned Glicko-2 calibrated to closing lines for edge detection.
Logistic Sharp
Logistic model tuned to sharp closing lines with regularization for edge precision.
Matchup Sharp
Optimized Bradley-Terry tuned to sharp closing lines for precise win probabilities.