Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Yards (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 214 |
0.2499
+0.0001
|
0.2499
best
|
0.6929
+0.0001
|
0.6929
best
|
0.471
−0.034
|
| FanDuel | 212 |
0.2500
+0.0002
|
0.2500
+0.0001
|
0.6932
+0.0004
|
0.6931
+0.0002
|
|
| BetOnline | 212 |
0.2498
best
|
0.2500
+0.0001
|
0.6928
best
|
0.6932
+0.0002
|
0.505
best
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026