Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Moneyline (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 729 |
0.1925
+0.0025
|
0.1858
best
|
0.5666
+0.0061
|
0.5510
best
|
0.707
−0.000
|
| Bookmaker | 725 |
0.1904
+0.0005
|
0.1869
+0.0010
|
0.5615
+0.0011
|
0.5540
+0.0030
|
0.706
−0.001
|
| Circa | 725 |
0.1904
+0.0005
|
0.1873
+0.0014
|
0.5617
+0.0013
|
0.5544
+0.0034
|
0.708
best
|
| DraftKings | 724 |
0.1904
+0.0005
|
0.1873
+0.0015
|
0.5613
+0.0009
|
0.5550
+0.0040
|
0.707
−0.001
|
| BetOnline | 725 |
0.1927
+0.0028
|
0.1876
+0.0018
|
0.5672
+0.0068
|
0.5557
+0.0047
|
0.705
−0.003
|
| FanDuel | 718 |
0.1899
best
|
0.1886
+0.0028
|
0.5604
best
|
0.5583
+0.0073
|
0.702
−0.006
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026