Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
WNBA — Total (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 356 |
0.2499
+0.0001
|
0.2492
best
|
0.6929
+0.0001
|
0.6916
best
|
0.573
best
|
| Bookmaker | 346 |
0.2498
best
|
0.2497
+0.0005
|
0.6928
best
|
0.6925
+0.0010
|
0.500
−0.073
|
| Pinnacle | 344 |
0.2502
+0.0004
|
0.2497
+0.0005
|
0.6936
+0.0009
|
0.6926
+0.0010
|
0.544
−0.029
|
| BetOnline | 352 |
0.2499
+0.0001
|
0.2497
+0.0005
|
0.6930
+0.0003
|
0.6926
+0.0010
|
0.527
−0.046
|
| FanDuel | 356 |
0.2502
+0.0004
|
0.2500
+0.0008
|
0.6936
+0.0008
|
0.6931
+0.0015
|
0.508
−0.065
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026