Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Total (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 2614 |
0.2496
+0.0002
|
0.2492
best
|
0.6923
+0.0003
|
0.6916
best
|
0.527
best
|
| BetOnline | 2571 |
0.2494
best
|
0.2494
+0.0002
|
0.6920
best
|
0.6919
+0.0003
|
0.521
−0.006
|
| Bookmaker | 2522 |
0.2499
+0.0005
|
0.2495
+0.0003
|
0.6930
+0.0011
|
0.6922
+0.0006
|
0.520
−0.006
|
| Pinnacle | 2367 |
0.2500
+0.0006
|
0.2497
+0.0004
|
0.6932
+0.0012
|
0.6925
+0.0009
|
0.513
−0.014
|
| Circa | 2292 |
0.2500
+0.0006
|
0.2500
+0.0007
|
0.6932
+0.0013
|
0.6931
+0.0015
|
0.508
−0.019
|
| DraftKings | 2547 |
0.2498
+0.0004
|
0.2500
+0.0007
|
0.6928
+0.0008
|
0.6931
+0.0015
|
0.514
−0.013
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026