Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Moneyline (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 52 |
0.2037
best
|
0.1980
best
|
0.5922
best
|
0.5772
best
|
0.706
−0.006
|
| Pinnacle | 52 |
0.2056
+0.0019
|
0.1983
+0.0003
|
0.5952
+0.0031
|
0.5780
+0.0008
|
0.692
−0.019
|
| FanDuel | 52 |
0.2083
+0.0046
|
0.1988
+0.0009
|
0.6019
+0.0097
|
0.5794
+0.0022
|
0.706
−0.006
|
| Circa | 52 |
0.2049
+0.0013
|
0.1989
+0.0009
|
0.5937
+0.0016
|
0.5791
+0.0019
|
0.712
best
|
| Bookmaker | 52 |
0.2081
+0.0044
|
0.1990
+0.0010
|
0.6005
+0.0083
|
0.5791
+0.0019
|
0.692
−0.019
|
| BetOnline | 52 |
0.2072
+0.0035
|
0.1993
+0.0013
|
0.5988
+0.0066
|
0.5805
+0.0033
|
0.692
−0.019
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026