Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Assists (Season)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 7304 |
0.2444
best
|
0.2453
best
|
0.6819
best
|
0.6836
best
|
0.560
best
|
| DraftKings | 7656 |
0.2452
+0.0008
|
0.2456
+0.0004
|
0.6834
+0.0015
|
0.6844
+0.0008
|
0.557
−0.003
|
| FanDuel | 7120 |
0.2448
+0.0004
|
0.2457
+0.0004
|
0.6826
+0.0007
|
0.6846
+0.0010
|
0.558
−0.002
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026