Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Assists (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 518 |
0.2394
+0.0019
|
0.2398
best
|
0.6713
+0.0041
|
0.6725
best
|
0.604
best
|
| BetOnline | 595 |
0.2426
+0.0051
|
0.2428
+0.0031
|
0.6783
+0.0111
|
0.6788
+0.0062
|
0.578
−0.026
|
| FanDuel | 519 |
0.2375
best
|
0.2430
+0.0032
|
0.6672
best
|
0.6791
+0.0065
|
0.579
−0.025
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026