Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Pitcher Earned Runs (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1400 |
0.2463
+0.0004
|
0.2440
best
|
0.6857
+0.0009
|
0.6810
best
|
0.567
−0.003
|
| DraftKings | 1405 |
0.2459
best
|
0.2447
+0.0007
|
0.6848
best
|
0.6824
+0.0014
|
0.570
best
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026