Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Spread (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 855 |
0.2394
+0.0009
|
0.2374
best
|
0.6718
+0.0019
|
0.6674
best
|
0.593
−0.001
|
| Circa | 855 |
0.2389
+0.0004
|
0.2382
+0.0008
|
0.6707
+0.0008
|
0.6691
+0.0017
|
0.594
best
|
| BetOnline | 855 |
0.2385
best
|
0.2383
+0.0010
|
0.6699
best
|
0.6694
+0.0020
|
0.591
−0.003
|
| Bookmaker | 854 |
0.2400
+0.0015
|
0.2394
+0.0020
|
0.6731
+0.0032
|
0.6717
+0.0043
|
0.593
−0.000
|
| FanDuel | 855 |
0.2391
+0.0006
|
0.2417
+0.0043
|
0.6712
+0.0014
|
0.6765
+0.0091
|
0.585
−0.009
|
| DraftKings | 855 |
0.2403
+0.0018
|
0.2427
+0.0053
|
0.6736
+0.0037
|
0.6785
+0.0111
|
0.579
−0.015
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026