Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Batter Total Bases (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 14442 |
0.2378
best
|
0.2416
best
|
0.6684
best
|
0.6761
best
|
0.578
best
|
| DraftKings | 10033 |
0.2522
+0.0144
|
0.2523
+0.0107
|
0.6987
+0.0303
|
0.6988
+0.0227
|
0.561
−0.018
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026