Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Spread (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 741 |
0.2504
+0.0004
|
0.2496
best
|
0.6940
+0.0009
|
0.6924
best
|
0.540
best
|
| Pinnacle | 740 |
0.2503
+0.0003
|
0.2499
+0.0003
|
0.6937
+0.0006
|
0.6929
+0.0005
|
0.519
−0.021
|
| Bookmaker | 737 |
0.2503
+0.0003
|
0.2499
+0.0003
|
0.6937
+0.0006
|
0.6930
+0.0007
|
0.505
−0.035
|
| BetOnline | 741 |
0.2501
+0.0001
|
0.2500
+0.0004
|
0.6933
+0.0002
|
0.6932
+0.0009
|
0.499
−0.041
|
| Circa | 740 |
0.2500
best
|
0.2501
+0.0005
|
0.6931
best
|
0.6934
+0.0010
|
0.492
−0.048
|
| DraftKings | 747 |
0.2501
+0.0001
|
0.2502
+0.0006
|
0.6933
+0.0002
|
0.6936
+0.0013
|
0.499
−0.041
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026