Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Moneyline (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 106 |
0.2422
+0.0078
|
0.2319
best
|
0.6819
+0.0183
|
0.6597
+0.0001
|
0.632
−0.009
|
| Pinnacle | 106 |
0.2406
+0.0061
|
0.2320
+0.0001
|
0.6786
+0.0150
|
0.6597
best
|
0.642
best
|
| FanDuel | 106 |
0.2344
best
|
0.2328
+0.0009
|
0.6636
best
|
0.6616
+0.0019
|
0.632
−0.009
|
| DraftKings | 106 |
0.2374
+0.0029
|
0.2333
+0.0014
|
0.6684
+0.0048
|
0.6620
+0.0024
|
0.613
−0.028
|
| BetOnline | 106 |
0.2367
+0.0023
|
0.2336
+0.0017
|
0.6703
+0.0067
|
0.6635
+0.0038
|
0.632
−0.009
|
| Circa | 106 |
0.2389
+0.0045
|
0.2340
+0.0021
|
0.6746
+0.0110
|
0.6642
+0.0045
|
0.613
−0.028
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026