Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Rebounds (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 9922 |
0.2452
best
|
0.2468
best
|
0.6833
best
|
0.6865
best
|
0.548
best
|
| BetOnline | 10469 |
0.2475
+0.0023
|
0.2470
+0.0002
|
0.6881
+0.0048
|
0.6871
+0.0006
|
0.546
−0.002
|
| DraftKings | 9791 |
0.2480
+0.0028
|
0.2473
+0.0006
|
0.6892
+0.0059
|
0.6878
+0.0013
|
0.541
−0.007
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026