Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Moneyline (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker | 73 |
0.2435
+0.0083
|
0.2329
best
|
0.6835
+0.0200
|
0.6617
best
|
0.603
−0.014
|
| Pinnacle | 73 |
0.2420
+0.0067
|
0.2330
+0.0002
|
0.6803
+0.0169
|
0.6618
+0.0001
|
0.616
best
|
| FanDuel | 73 |
0.2352
best
|
0.2343
+0.0014
|
0.6635
best
|
0.6642
+0.0025
|
0.603
−0.014
|
| BetOnline | 73 |
0.2362
+0.0010
|
0.2345
+0.0016
|
0.6678
+0.0044
|
0.6652
+0.0036
|
0.603
−0.014
|
| DraftKings | 73 |
0.2388
+0.0036
|
0.2355
+0.0026
|
0.6689
+0.0054
|
0.6663
+0.0046
|
0.575
−0.041
|
| Circa | 73 |
0.2389
+0.0037
|
0.2356
+0.0027
|
0.6733
+0.0098
|
0.6673
+0.0056
|
0.575
−0.041
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026