Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Rushing Yards (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 539 |
0.2494
best
|
0.2503
best
|
0.6918
best
|
0.6938
best
|
0.466
−0.047
|
| DraftKings | 576 |
0.2496
+0.0002
|
0.2504
+0.0000
|
0.6923
+0.0005
|
0.6939
+0.0001
|
0.473
−0.040
|
| FanDuel | 577 |
0.2505
+0.0011
|
0.2505
+0.0002
|
0.6941
+0.0023
|
0.6941
+0.0004
|
0.513
best
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026