Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Rushing Yards (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 401 |
0.2499
+0.0008
|
0.2503
best
|
0.6930
+0.0019
|
0.6937
best
|
0.472
−0.088
|
| BetOnline | 375 |
0.2491
best
|
0.2504
+0.0001
|
0.6911
best
|
0.6939
+0.0002
|
0.466
−0.094
|
| FanDuel | 401 |
0.2503
+0.0012
|
0.2504
+0.0001
|
0.6938
+0.0027
|
0.6940
+0.0003
|
0.560
best
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026