Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Total (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 182 |
0.2507
+0.0029
|
0.2469
best
|
0.6946
+0.0058
|
0.6870
best
|
0.569
best
|
| Pinnacle | 178 |
0.2478
best
|
0.2477
+0.0008
|
0.6888
best
|
0.6886
+0.0016
|
0.557
−0.012
|
| Bookmaker | 236 |
0.2508
+0.0030
|
0.2492
+0.0023
|
0.6948
+0.0060
|
0.6916
+0.0046
|
0.505
−0.064
|
| FanDuel | 244 |
0.2507
+0.0029
|
0.2493
+0.0024
|
0.6946
+0.0058
|
0.6918
+0.0049
|
0.519
−0.049
|
| Circa | 181 |
0.2484
+0.0005
|
0.2494
+0.0025
|
0.6899
+0.0011
|
0.6919
+0.0050
|
0.541
−0.028
|
| DraftKings | 245 |
0.2489
+0.0010
|
0.2510
+0.0041
|
0.6909
+0.0021
|
0.6952
+0.0082
|
0.527
−0.042
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026