Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Total (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 182 |
0.2507
+0.0029
|
0.2469
best
|
0.6946
+0.0058
|
0.6870
best
|
0.569
best
|
| Bookmaker | 183 |
0.2496
+0.0018
|
0.2476
+0.0007
|
0.6924
+0.0036
|
0.6884
+0.0014
|
0.529
−0.040
|
| Pinnacle | 178 |
0.2478
best
|
0.2477
+0.0008
|
0.6888
best
|
0.6886
+0.0016
|
0.557
−0.012
|
| FanDuel | 187 |
0.2509
+0.0031
|
0.2483
+0.0014
|
0.6950
+0.0061
|
0.6897
+0.0027
|
0.539
−0.030
|
| Circa | 179 |
0.2480
+0.0002
|
0.2491
+0.0022
|
0.6892
+0.0004
|
0.6913
+0.0043
|
0.548
−0.021
|
| DraftKings | 187 |
0.2483
+0.0005
|
0.2506
+0.0037
|
0.6898
+0.0010
|
0.6944
+0.0074
|
0.536
−0.033
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026