Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Rebounds (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 702 |
0.2458
+0.0020
|
0.2441
best
|
0.6847
+0.0040
|
0.6813
best
|
0.597
best
|
| FanDuel | 688 |
0.2493
+0.0055
|
0.2457
+0.0016
|
0.6916
+0.0109
|
0.6845
+0.0032
|
0.577
−0.020
|
| DraftKings | 675 |
0.2438
best
|
0.2464
+0.0024
|
0.6807
best
|
0.6860
+0.0047
|
0.556
−0.042
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026