Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Batter Total Bases (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 933 |
0.2377
best
|
0.2420
best
|
0.6680
best
|
0.6770
best
|
0.570
−0.000
|
| DraftKings | 560 |
0.2536
+0.0159
|
0.2555
+0.0135
|
0.7019
+0.0339
|
0.7061
+0.0291
|
0.571
best
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026