Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Batter Total Bases (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 38354 |
0.2386
best
|
0.2414
best
|
0.6700
best
|
0.6757
best
|
0.579
best
|
| DraftKings | 27880 |
0.2501
+0.0115
|
0.2503
+0.0089
|
0.6942
+0.0242
|
0.6945
+0.0188
|
0.564
−0.015
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026