Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Spread (All Time)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circa | 2389 |
0.2401
best
|
0.2396
best
|
0.6731
best
|
0.6720
best
|
0.592
best
|
| Pinnacle | 2465 |
0.2409
+0.0008
|
0.2401
+0.0005
|
0.6747
+0.0016
|
0.6731
+0.0010
|
0.589
−0.002
|
| BetOnline | 2465 |
0.2401
+0.0001
|
0.2408
+0.0012
|
0.6732
+0.0001
|
0.6746
+0.0025
|
0.587
−0.004
|
| FanDuel | 2677 |
0.2416
+0.0015
|
0.2423
+0.0027
|
0.6762
+0.0031
|
0.6776
+0.0056
|
0.581
−0.010
|
| Bookmaker | 2616 |
0.2422
+0.0022
|
0.2424
+0.0028
|
0.6775
+0.0045
|
0.6778
+0.0058
|
0.580
−0.012
|
| DraftKings | 2661 |
0.2410
+0.0009
|
0.2425
+0.0029
|
0.6750
+0.0019
|
0.6781
+0.0060
|
0.579
−0.012
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026