Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Spread (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circa | 52 |
0.2421
+0.0045
|
0.2364
best
|
0.6772
+0.0093
|
0.6650
best
|
0.600
best
|
| Pinnacle | 52 |
0.2376
best
|
0.2445
+0.0081
|
0.6680
best
|
0.6820
+0.0170
|
0.558
−0.042
|
| BetOnline | 52 |
0.2443
+0.0066
|
0.2453
+0.0089
|
0.6818
+0.0138
|
0.6838
+0.0188
|
0.569
−0.031
|
| Bookmaker | 51 |
0.2426
+0.0050
|
0.2548
+0.0184
|
0.6785
+0.0105
|
0.7033
+0.0384
|
0.549
−0.051
|
| DraftKings | 52 |
0.2510
+0.0134
|
0.2551
+0.0187
|
0.6959
+0.0279
|
0.7038
+0.0388
|
0.538
−0.062
|
| FanDuel | 52 |
0.2439
+0.0063
|
0.2617
+0.0253
|
0.6811
+0.0131
|
0.7175
+0.0525
|
0.538
−0.062
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026