Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Attempts (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 212 |
0.2500
+0.0009
|
0.2504
best
|
0.6931
+0.0018
|
0.6939
best
|
0.506
−0.015
|
| FanDuel | 208 |
0.2490
best
|
0.2504
+0.0000
|
0.6912
best
|
0.6939
+0.0000
|
0.521
best
|
| DraftKings | 212 |
0.2495
+0.0005
|
0.2516
+0.0012
|
0.6922
+0.0010
|
0.6964
+0.0025
|
0.457
−0.064
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026