Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Touchdowns (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 214 |
0.2371
+0.0027
|
0.2316
best
|
0.6670
+0.0056
|
0.6556
best
|
0.638
best
|
| FanDuel | 212 |
0.2344
best
|
0.2337
+0.0021
|
0.6614
best
|
0.6598
+0.0042
|
0.614
−0.024
|
| BetOnline | 212 |
0.2372
+0.0028
|
0.2352
+0.0036
|
0.6672
+0.0058
|
0.6631
+0.0074
|
0.616
−0.022
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026