Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Spread (90 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 105 |
0.2509
+0.0041
|
0.2481
best
|
0.6949
+0.0081
|
0.6894
best
|
0.543
−0.025
|
| Pinnacle | 103 |
0.2468
best
|
0.2481
+0.0000
|
0.6868
best
|
0.6894
+0.0000
|
0.515
−0.053
|
| Bookmaker | 101 |
0.2499
+0.0031
|
0.2486
+0.0004
|
0.6930
+0.0062
|
0.6903
+0.0009
|
0.556
−0.013
|
| DraftKings | 101 |
0.2508
+0.0040
|
0.2494
+0.0013
|
0.6948
+0.0081
|
0.6919
+0.0025
|
0.524
−0.044
|
| Circa | 102 |
0.2502
+0.0034
|
0.2495
+0.0014
|
0.6936
+0.0069
|
0.6922
+0.0028
|
0.568
best
|
| BetOnline | 100 |
0.2499
+0.0031
|
0.2502
+0.0020
|
0.6929
+0.0062
|
0.6935
+0.0041
|
0.471
−0.097
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026