Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Attempts (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 143 |
0.2489
best
|
0.2504
best
|
0.6910
best
|
0.6940
best
|
0.527
best
|
| BetOnline | 146 |
0.2507
+0.0018
|
0.2513
+0.0009
|
0.6946
+0.0036
|
0.6958
+0.0018
|
0.481
−0.046
|
| DraftKings | 146 |
0.2501
+0.0012
|
0.2521
+0.0016
|
0.6933
+0.0023
|
0.6973
+0.0033
|
0.445
−0.082
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026