Sportsbook Efficiency

Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.

League: NBA NHL MLB WNBA NFL

Market: Moneyline Spread Total Passing Yards Passing Completions Passing Attempts Passing Interceptions Passing Touchdowns Rushing Yards Receiving Yards Longest Reception

Window: 30 Days 90 Days Season All Time

NFL — Longest Reception (90 Days)

As of 2026-10-27

Bookmaker	# Markets	Brier Open	Brier Close	Log-Loss Open	Log-Loss Close	Hit Rate
FanDuel	1067	0.2416 best	0.2491 best	0.6752 best	0.6913 best	0.545 best
DraftKings	1006	0.2502 +0.0086	0.2504 +0.0013	0.6935 +0.0183	0.6939 +0.0026	0.506 −0.039

Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026