Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Passing Yards
Passing Completions
Passing Attempts
Passing Interceptions
Passing Touchdowns
Rushing Yards
Receiving Yards
Longest Reception
NFL — Passing Touchdowns (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 146 |
0.2353
best
|
0.2330
best
|
0.6632
best
|
0.6586
best
|
0.621
−0.007
|
| DraftKings | 146 |
0.2353
+0.0000
|
0.2337
+0.0006
|
0.6632
+0.0001
|
0.6599
+0.0013
|
0.628
best
|
| FanDuel | 146 |
0.2387
+0.0035
|
0.2352
+0.0022
|
0.6703
+0.0072
|
0.6630
+0.0044
|
0.607
−0.021
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026