Sportsbook Efficiency

Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.

League: NBA NHL MLB WNBA NFL

Market: Moneyline Spread Total Passing Yards Passing Completions Passing Attempts Passing Interceptions Passing Touchdowns Rushing Yards Receiving Yards Longest Reception

Window: 30 Days 90 Days Season All Time

NFL — Longest Reception (30 Days)

As of 2026-10-27

Bookmaker	# Markets	Brier Open	Brier Close	Log-Loss Open	Log-Loss Close	Hit Rate
FanDuel	748	0.2400 best	0.2494 best	0.6716 best	0.6919 best	0.532 best
DraftKings	714	0.2502 +0.0102	0.2503 +0.0009	0.6935 +0.0219	0.6937 +0.0019	0.506 −0.026

Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026