Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NHL — Moneyline (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circa | 185 |
0.2322
+0.0004
|
0.2293
best
|
0.6562
+0.0006
|
0.6503
best
|
0.624
−0.001
|
| FanDuel | 187 |
0.2339
+0.0021
|
0.2295
+0.0001
|
0.6600
+0.0044
|
0.6506
+0.0002
|
0.626
best
|
| Pinnacle | 187 |
0.2327
+0.0009
|
0.2300
+0.0007
|
0.6572
+0.0017
|
0.6517
+0.0014
|
0.614
−0.012
|
| Bookmaker | 187 |
0.2326
+0.0008
|
0.2308
+0.0015
|
0.6572
+0.0016
|
0.6534
+0.0030
|
0.616
−0.009
|
| DraftKings | 187 |
0.2326
+0.0008
|
0.2308
+0.0015
|
0.6572
+0.0016
|
0.6534
+0.0031
|
0.608
−0.018
|
| BetOnline | 187 |
0.2318
best
|
0.2308
+0.0015
|
0.6556
best
|
0.6535
+0.0032
|
0.596
−0.030
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026