Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Moneyline (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 52 |
0.2353
+0.0042
|
0.2327
best
|
0.6628
+0.0086
|
0.6578
best
|
0.654
−0.006
|
| Circa | 52 |
0.2329
+0.0018
|
0.2328
+0.0001
|
0.6581
+0.0039
|
0.6582
+0.0004
|
0.660
best
|
| Bookmaker | 51 |
0.2311
best
|
0.2331
+0.0004
|
0.6542
best
|
0.6586
+0.0008
|
0.627
−0.033
|
| FanDuel | 52 |
0.2328
+0.0017
|
0.2334
+0.0007
|
0.6576
+0.0034
|
0.6594
+0.0016
|
0.635
−0.025
|
| Pinnacle | 52 |
0.2327
+0.0016
|
0.2335
+0.0008
|
0.6575
+0.0033
|
0.6595
+0.0018
|
0.654
−0.006
|
| BetOnline | 52 |
0.2337
+0.0026
|
0.2339
+0.0012
|
0.6597
+0.0055
|
0.6603
+0.0026
|
0.654
−0.006
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026