Sportsbook Efficiency

Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.

League: NBA NHL MLB WNBA NFL

MLB — Batter Hits (30 Days)

As of 2026-10-27
Bookmaker # Markets Brier Open Brier Close Log-Loss Open Log-Loss Close Hit Rate
BetOnline 952
0.2423
+0.0068
0.2387
best
0.6776
+0.0144
0.6701
best
0.585
best
DraftKings 944
0.2355
best
0.2391
+0.0004
0.6632
best
0.6708
+0.0007
0.585
−0.000

Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026