Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
Market:
Moneyline
Spread
Total
Pitcher Strikeouts
Pitcher Hits Allowed
Pitcher Earned Runs
Batter Hits
Batter Total Bases
MLB — Pitcher Strikeouts (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 92 |
0.2418
best
|
0.2458
best
|
0.6765
best
|
0.6845
best
|
0.511
−0.008
|
| FanDuel | 80 |
0.2442
+0.0024
|
0.2500
+0.0042
|
0.6814
+0.0049
|
0.6932
+0.0087
|
0.519
best
|
| DraftKings | 100 |
0.2435
+0.0017
|
0.2507
+0.0049
|
0.6801
+0.0036
|
0.6947
+0.0102
|
0.510
−0.009
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026