Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Points (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 729 |
0.2510
+0.0018
|
0.2477
best
|
0.6956
+0.0042
|
0.6885
best
|
0.542
best
|
| BetOnline | 740 |
0.2492
best
|
0.2501
+0.0024
|
0.6914
best
|
0.6933
+0.0047
|
0.515
−0.027
|
| FanDuel | 740 |
0.2499
+0.0007
|
0.2504
+0.0027
|
0.6929
+0.0015
|
0.6939
+0.0054
|
0.502
−0.039
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026