Sportsbook Efficiency
Empirical sportsbook efficiency, measured by comparing de-vigged prices to actual outcomes. Close Brier scores the final line; Open Brier scores the first posted line. Avg Move shows mean |close − open| (points for spread/total/prop, fair-prob delta for moneyline). Lower Brier = more accurate pricing. Hit rate = how often the devigged favorite won.
NBA — Total (30 Days)
As of 2026-10-27| Bookmaker | # Markets | Brier Open | Brier Close | Log-Loss Open | Log-Loss Close | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 52 |
0.2488
best
|
0.2486
best
|
0.6908
best
|
0.6904
best
|
0.618
−0.014
|
| Bookmaker | 50 |
0.2500
+0.0012
|
0.2491
+0.0005
|
0.6932
+0.0023
|
0.6914
+0.0010
|
0.613
−0.019
|
| Pinnacle | 49 |
0.2497
+0.0008
|
0.2493
+0.0007
|
0.6924
+0.0016
|
0.6918
+0.0014
|
0.632
best
|
| Circa | 51 |
0.2500
+0.0012
|
0.2500
+0.0014
|
0.6931
+0.0023
|
0.6931
+0.0028
|
|
| DraftKings | 52 |
0.2494
+0.0006
|
0.2502
+0.0016
|
0.6919
+0.0011
|
0.6935
+0.0031
|
0.541
−0.091
|
| BetOnline | 51 |
0.2502
+0.0014
|
0.2503
+0.0017
|
0.6936
+0.0028
|
0.6937
+0.0033
|
0.375
−0.257
|
Data window: January 18, 2026 – October 26, 2026